Optimal Dimensionality Reduction of Complex Dynamics: The Chess Game as Diffusion on a Free Energy Landscape

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Dimensionality reduction is ubiquitous in analysis of complex dynamics. The conventional dimensionality reduction techniques, however, focus on reproducing the underlying configuration space, rather than the dynamics itself. The constructed low-dimensional space does not provide complete and accurate description of the dynamics. Here I describe how to perform dimensionality reduction while preserving the essential properties of the dynamics. The approach is illustrated by analyzing the chess game - the archetype of complex dynamics. A variable that provides complete and accurate description of chess dynamics is constructed. Winning probability is predicted by describing the game as a random walk on the free energy landscape associated with the variable. The approach suggests a possible way of obtaining a simple yet accurate description of many important complex phenomena. The analysis of the chess game shows that the approach can quantitatively describe the dynamics of processes where human decision-making plays a central role, e.g., financial and social dynamics.