Sequential Monte Carlo Filtering Estimation of Ebola Progression in West Africa
Shahtori, Narges Montazeri · Scoglio, Caterina · Pourhabib, Arash · Sahneh, Faryad Darabi
Original · EN
We use a multivariate formulation of sequential Monte Carlo filter that utilizes mechanistic models for Ebola virus propagation and available incidence data to simultaneously estimate the disease progression states and the model parameters. This method has the advantage of performing the inference online as the new data becomes available and estimates the evolution of basic reproductive ratio R₀(t) of the Ebola outbreak through time. Our analysis identifies a peak in the basic reproductive ratio close to the time when Ebola cases were reported in Europe and the USA.
English translation
This paper has no Arabic translation yet. Be the first: it takes a few seconds, and the result is stored for every future reader.