Size of Outbreaks Near the Epidemic Threshold
Ben-Naim, E. · Krapivsky, P. L.
Original · EN
The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal size of an outbreak n* scales as N²/³ with N the population size. This scaling law implies that the average outbreak size <n> scales as N¹/³. Moreover, the maximal and the average duration of an outbreak grow as t* N¹/³ and <t> ln N, respectively.
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