The Probability Distribution of the Double Neutron Star Coalescence Rate and Predictions for More Detections

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We present an analysis method that allows us to estimate the Galactic formation of radio pulsar populations based on their observed properties and our understanding of survey selection effects. More importantly, this method allows us to assign a statistical significance to such rate estimates and calculate the allowed ranges of values at various confidence levels. Here, we apply the method to the question of the double neutron star (NS-NS) coalescence rate using the current observed sample, and we find calculate the most likely value for the total Galactic coalescence rate to lie in the range 3-22 Myr⁻¹, for different pulsar population models. The corresponding range of expected detection rates of NS--NS inspiral are (1-9)x10⁻³ yr⁻¹ for the initial LIGO, and 6-50 yr⁻¹ for the advanced LIGO. Based on this newly developed statistical method, we also calculate the probability distribution for the expected number of pulsars that could be observed by the Parkes Multibeam survey, when acceleration searches will alleviate the effects of Doppler smearing due to orbital motions. We suggest that the Parkes survey will probably detect 1-2 new binary pulsars like PSRs B1913+16 and/or B1534+12.